Gallup on Beer Consumption Patterns

Every year, Gallup does a survey about the consumption pattern of American drinkers.  Since I've been discussing them for three years now (2009, 2010, 2011), I figure it's too late to stop.  The piece that most interests me is women.  Gallup has consistently found that they prefer wine over beer and liquor, but in 2010, it looked like there was a major shift among women toward beer--especially younger women.  But then last year the numbers looked more like 2009 numbers.  Were the findings in 2010 an outlier?  It's starting to look like it.

Women Citing Beer as Preferred Beverage

_____________________2009____2010___2011___2012
All__________________21%_____27% ___22% ___23%
Under 49 years old___25%_____35% ___28% ___27%
Over 50 years old____15%_____18% ___17% ___17%

So there you have it.  Women may be very slowly switching allegiance to beer, but it's very slowly.  Ah, well.

Gallup's Latest Alcohol Preferences Survey: Noisy

The last couple years, Gallup has sent me a link to their annual alcohol preferences survey. This year they didn't and it fell to Alan to alert me to the latest numbers. One of the things that really lept off the page last year were the number of women who were apparently flocking to beer. I illustrated the numbers with this handy graph:

Women Citing Beer as Preferred Beverage

_____________________2009____2010__Change
All__________________21%_____27% ___+6%
Under 49 years old___25%_____35% ___+10%
Over 50 years old____15%_____18% ___+3%

Great, right? Well, this year's numbers show a substantial reversal--still positive over '09's numbers, but only modestly so.

Women Citing Beer as Preferred Beverage

_____________________2009____2010___2011
All__________________21%_____27% ___22%
Under 49 years old___25%_____35% ___28%
Over 50 years old____15%_____18% ___17%

The numbers are worse for beer across the map. Beer was favored by 41% of respondents last year and only 36% this year (wine gained 3% to 35% and liquor 2% to 23%)--tied for the lowest ever measured. And it was down particularly badly among young people, who cited it as their favorite alcohol in just 39% of cases (down from 51%).

Of course, it's pretty clear we're just seeing poll "noise." These surveys have a margin of error of ±4%. When you look at the graphs, you see a lot of zig-zagging year-to-year. It's hard to think that such large populations are swinging in preference one year to the next. Rather, there are trends that become exaggerated by single data points.


If you consider the averages, things appear a little different. Over the past ten years, beer is cited as the favorite by an average of 41% of respondents (high of 46, low of 39). That is off the average from the previous decade's average of 45% (high 47%, low 42%). Wine has picked up some the slack, cited by 33% of people over the past decade, up from 30% the decade before. The remainder goes to liquor.

So if we go back to the number for women, I think we could assume the same phenomenon. (Unfortunately, we don't have numbers going back two decades, so we can't see the trendline.) Probably things are moving in the right direction, but far more modestly than it appeared after last year's survey.

Women Are Craft Brewing's Future

I recently spoke to a journalist doing a story on the future of craft beer. (A worthy topic for a post, but not this one.) He was interested to know how much growth craft breweries in the Northwest might be expected to enjoy. A lot can be said there, but I highlighted one factor I thought has gone relatively unexamined. Per capita beer drinking has remained pretty steady over the years, fluctuating only slightly year by year. Different states consume beer at different rates, but the trendline for individual states remains steady, too. Therefore, all things being equal, if craft breweries want to increase market share, they must take it away from macros and imports.

Ah, but all things are not equal. The other way they can do it is find new segments who don't currently drink beer. And there's a HUGE one: women. They constitute half the drinkers in America, and they barely sniff the stuff. Ladies prefer cocktails and wine. I posted results of a Gallup poll last year showing that only a fifth of female drinkers cited beer as their preferred beverage. (Men, of course, prefer beer--58% will choose it over wine or liquor.)

I just got an email from Gallup pointing me to this year's poll. Guess what--it looks like we're already seeing some substantial movement.

Women Citing Beer as Preferred Beverage

_____________________2009____2010__Change
All__________________21%_____27% ___+6%
Under 49 years old___25%_____35% ___+10%
Over 50 years old____15%_____18% ___+3%

This appears to be real movement. The margin of error is 4%, and the trends are all consistent. While we can't be certain those numbers are exactly accurate, we have to assume the actual movement toward more beer-drinking is. Moreover, if women were taking to beer, you'd expect to see the trend emerge among younger women--and so it is. The really big finding: in the past year, younger women have made a serious move toward beer as their preferred beverage. A year ago, it was the third-most preferred beverage; this year it was way out in front of liquor, and only trailing wine by 4%. It's not unreasonable to envision a future when beer is the preferred beverage among men and women.

Gallup doesn't break consumption down by type, so for all we know, these women might be Pabst drinkers. Surely some are. But you have to imagine that craft beer is picking up a disproportionate share of that shift. The beer is better and more vivid-tasting, and the marketing is far more woman-friendly than the still borderline misogynistic macro campaigns.

If I were a craft brewery, I would be extremely aggressive about trying to market to women. You may convert a few Bud men to your Sang Noirs, but it's going to be a lot easier to convert pinot women.

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PHOTO: DAILY MAIL